Work in teams of two students. Produce a buy, sell, or hold recommendation for one of the 5 stocks in your industry.
APPLE IS NOT ALLOWED!
The paper should include no more than 4 pages of written text (double-spaced size 12 font), with succinct, to-the-point statements about the future prospects of your firm. The written part should reference the “Score Card” and all of your analysis. (graphs, spreadsheets, charts and tables) that provide supporting documentation for your recommendations. Your grade will be determined by the rigor, scope and presentation of the analysis that you provide. Greater effort and clarity of exposition will be rewarded accordingly. Justify your assumptions for the inputs of the DDM and DCF Model in order to get credit!
We have reviewed numerous methods for estimating stock values including:
1. Qualitative Analysis (Porters 5 Forces, Management Discussion & Analysis, Conference Call Review, Supply Chain Analysis, Product/Geographic diversification) Limited to a maximum score card weight of 40%
2. CAPM regressions to determine historical alphas.
3. Multifactor (APT) analysis (i.e. Fama-French 3 Factor regressions for alpha)
Alpha Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFMW-GMs4uI
4. Fundamental/Quantitative Analysis (Analyze Ratio’s over time AND Ratio’s versus peers, Multiple Regressions (PE Ratio, PB Ratio, EV/EBITDA Ratio), Dividend Discount Model, Discounted Cash Flow Model, PEG Ratio’s, Tobin’s Q, etc.)
Regression Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgdK_GhMG_Q
You are free to choose from among each of these methods. A perfect paper will include a comprehensive, clear analysis that utilizes all methods discussed in-class plus your own factor model. Of course, the proper application of the methods will be rewarded accordingly. You must show all your work and provide supporting documentation.
EXAMPLE: NOT A TEMPLATE
Company NameQualitative Analysis
RatioDDMDCFPE regPS regPB reg